I was looking at my past Notes and discovered that I had written about the power of predictability exactly one year ago. You can read it HERE. I find it amusing although not a coincidence that we are literally back in the same place we were one year ago. Some of the data points are even same:
1.2 months’ supply of homes = one home for every buyer
16 showings to get an offer
20% of supply needed for a balanced market
The buyers of 2024 have the same amount of choice in terms of homes to see this year than last year, and appear to be taking the same amount of time before making an offer!
In 2023, the real estate market experienced a slowing sooner than seasonal norms because of precipitously rising interest rates that started around April (right after Easter). This year, Easter falls earlier on March 31st and rates are climbing, although not in leaps and bounds. President’s Day weekend balked at historic trends by seeing an increase of homes going under contract and reducing the days that newly listed homes were available before going under contract. Typically, there is about a 30% - 40% reduction in activity over this holiday weekend as Coloradoans head up to get some sweet spring skiing in. Not this year!
I showed homes on Friday and Saturday to two sets of buyers who experienced the roller coaster ride of writing offers on homes that had multiple offers on them in 2 days of being on the market! One of the homes had EIGHT offers on it, and another, listed at $2.1M had FIVE total offers in 24 hours. Some of my clients won and others lost but it was clear to all of us that the market was off and running sooner than anyone anticipated.
I believe there is a “magic moment of opportunity” that lies in the space between predictable market patterns, and real time market activity. Data is helpful to anticipate the best times to list a home, or to find when buyers have more negotiating power. I take a balanced approach when it comes to advising my clients, one where we try to find the “magic moment” in the space that is “no longer” and “not yet”. Understanding how to negotiate in this moment can be the difference of having sellers who have homes that become stale, and need major price cuts to generate interest, or buyers who lose all hope of owning a home because of bidding wars.
A quick snapshot of market activity during the days encompassing Valentine’s Day and President’s Day Weekend underscores how hot our market is right now:
Showings were up nearly 20% week over week
Half of the active homes went under contract in 11 days
Homes priced between $1M - $1.5M only lasted 6 days before going under contract (just a few weeks ago in December, this number was 44!!)
Homes priced between $1.5M - $2M spend 17 days on the market (waaaaay up from 71 days in December)
My advice? Learn from the past and begin your home journey sooner than later. Tap into the power of predictability to achieve your dreams of home ownership, so you can write the next chapter of your life in just the way you desire!
